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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler is peering over the precipice of his first NFL playoff experience. By the time Denver takes the field on Sunday afternoon against the visiting San Francisco 49ers, the rookie may have already made his jump.
Thanks to the back-to-back wins that Cutler engineered over the Cardinals (37-20) and Bengals (24-23), victories that also qualify as his first and second as an NFL starter, the Broncos are poised to reach the postseason for the fourth straight year and the eighth time in 12 seasons under head coach Mike Shanahan. Should the 8-7 Chiefs fall to the Jaguars in an early afternoon game on Sunday, the Broncos will have clinched an AFC Wild Card berth, and irrespective of the result of the Kansas City/Jacksonville game, Denver can lock up the No. 5 seed in the conference with a victory over the Niners.
The Broncos are certain to play a first-round road game if they reach the postseason, with a trip to New England, Indianapolis, or Baltimore likely in the franchise's near future.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is resigned to play the role of spoiler. The 49ers forfeited their chance at a first postseason trip since 2002 last Sunday, when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals (26-20). The defeat clinched the Niners' fourth consecutive losing season, which matches the longest such streak in franchise history. San Francisco suffered through four straight sub-.500 campaigns from 1977 to 1980, just prior to an extraordinarily successful run that saw the organization make 12 playoff appearances and win five Super Bowls in a 14-year period that spanned 1981 to 1994
SERIES HISTORY
The Broncos lead the all-time regular season series with the 49ers, 6-4, and have won each of the last two head-to-head meetings. Denver was a 24-14 winner when the teams last did battle, at Monster Park in 2002, and also took the last recent matchup in the Mile High City, a 38-9 triumph in 2000. San Francisco's last win in the series took place at home in 1997. The Niners are 0-3 in Denver since scoring their only win there in 1973.
The most memorable meeting between the teams was Super Bowl XXIV in New Orleans, won by the 49ers, 55-10, in a game that remains the most lopsided in Super Bowl history.
Shanahan is 3-1 all-time against San Francisco, for which he served as offensive coordinator from 1992 through 1994, including 2-1 since coming to the Broncos in 1995. The 49ers' Mike Nolan will be meeting both Shanahan and the Broncos for the first time as a head coach.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE
High on the 49ers' list of directives for Sunday's game will be handing the ball to running back Frank Gore (1542 rushing yards, 59 receptions, 9 TD), who enters Week 17 needing just 29 ground yards to break the franchise single- season record of 1,570, recorded by Garrison Hearst in 1998. Gore was held to just 51 yards on 11 rushes during a frustrating afternoon against Arizona last week, though he did manage his eighth and ninth touchdowns of the year and also contributed six catches for 35 yards out of the backfield. The Miami- Florida product, who is headed to his first career Pro Bowl, has eight 100- yard games to his credit this season. Maurice Hicks (82 rushing yards, 13 receptions, 1 TD) was the only other San Francisco player with a touch against the Cardinals, and his lone carry netted minus-two yards. The Niners are seventh in the league in rushing offense (132.2 yards per game), and second in yards per carry (5.0).
Gore's push for the franchise rushing mark will be made easier this week if middle linebacker Al Wilson (101 tackles, 1 sack), who is listed as questionable with a sore lower back, is unable to suit up. Wilson, who leads Denver in tackles, was present last Sunday when the Bengals' Rudi Johnson amassed 129 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries in snowy conditions. Wilson logged six stops in the game, and fellow LB Ian Gold (78 tackles) had a quiet day with three tackles. Up front, end/tackle Ebenezer Ekuban (58 tackles, 6.5 sacks) had a huge game, finishing with a season-high eight tackles and notching the fourth sack in his last six outings. Ekuban and fellow interior linemen Michael Myers (52 tackles, 2 sacks) and Gerard Warren (29 tackles, 1.5 sacks) are at the front of a defense that ranks 11th in NFL rushing defense (108.3 yards per game).
Among San Francisco's most prominent offseason needs will have to be receiving help, which was in precious little supply in last week's loss to Arizona. Missing for the Niners' most crucial game of the season to date was supposed No. 1 wideout Antonio Bryant (40 receptions, 3 TD), who was suspended for four games following a violation of the league's substance abuse policy. Without him, Arnaz Battle (55 receptions, 3 TD) was quarterback Alex Smith's only reliable outside receiving target, with Battle catching seven passes for a respectable 55 yards. Also making his presence felt was rookie tight end Vernon Davis (17 receptions, 3 TD), who caught four balls for a season-high 91 yards in a losing effort. Bryan Gilmore (7 receptions, 1 TD), who started in place of Bryant, came up small without a catch. Smith (2696 passing yards, 15 TD, 15 INT) was 18-of-29 for 190 yards with an interception and four sacks absorbed on the day, lowering his season passer rating to 75.2. San Francisco is 28th in NFL passing offense (167.8 yards per game) heading into Sunday.
Smith will want to steer well clear of a Denver secondary that was instrumental in last week's key victory over Cincinnati. Cornerback Champ Bailey (81 tackles) logged his NFL-leading ninth interception of the year off of Carson Palmer, also contributing a fumble recovery; fellow CB Darrent Williams (83 tackles, 4 INT) had a pick and a forced fumble; strong safety John Lynch (75 tackles) registered seven tackles and a forced fumble of his own; and strong safety Domonique Foxworth (58 tackles, 1 INT) posted a game- high 14 tackles and yet another forced fumble. A hot-and-cold pass rush managed just two sacks of Palmer all day, one of which went to starting end Kenard Lang (33 tackles, 6 sacks). Situational rookie Elvis Dumervil continues to lead the team in sacks with eight. Denver is 23rd in the league versus the pass (215.6 yards per game), and tied for 19th in sacks (31).
BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE
Cutler (771 passing yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has shown immediate playmaking ability for Denver, throwing two touchdown passes in each of his first four starts and spreading the ball to a number of different targets along the way. Cutler was 12-of-23 for 179 yards with two TDs and a pick in the win over Cincinnati, with his scoring strikes going to tight end Tony Scheffler (15 receptions, 3 TD) and wideout Javon Walker (65 receptions, 8 TD), while No. 3 receiver Brandon Marshall (18 receptions, 2 TD) contributed a team-high four catches for 55 yards to the win. The rookie Scheffler has all three of his NFL touchdown receptions during Cutler's four-game stint as starter, and fellow greenhorn Marshall has posted his two highest receiving totals of the year over that stretch as well. Walker continues to lead Denver in grabs, receiving yards (1059), and TD catches. Veteran Rod Smith (47 receptions, 3 TD) was held to one reception for five yards against the Bengals. The Broncos line has allowed 28 sacks on the year, including 11 of Cutler.
Rattling Cutler could be a problem for a 49ers defense that is just 27th in the league versus aerial attacks (224.1 yards per game), tied for 19th in sacks (31), and had little answer for Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner on a 267- yard passing day for Arizona last Sunday. The 49ers failed to force a single turnover from the Cardinal offense, a trend that the likes of cornerback Walt Harris (56 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack) and strong safety Keith Lewis (72 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) will be trying to reverse in Denver. Harris and Lewis are 1-2 on the team in interceptions, but neither has reached the INT column in their team's past five games. Reserve end Roderick Green (12 tackles, 4.5 sacks) had the Niners' only two sacks against Arizona last Sunday, and moved closer to linebacker Brandon Moore (6.5 sacks) for the team lead in that category with the effort.
Poised to cross the 1,000-yard threshold for the first time in his career is Broncos running back Tatum Bell (977 rushing yards, 2 TD, 21 receptions), who is just 23 yards shy of four digits for the year. Bell has five 100-yard games to his credit this season, and though he lost a fumble last week, helped move the chains with 50 yards on 12 carries in the Cincinnati win. Namesake and rookie Mike Bell (611 rushing yards, 8 TD, 17 receptions) has been the hotter player over the past two weeks, compiling 130 yards and three touchdowns on 32 attempts in the pair of victories. The duo, which has allowed Denver to rank sixth in NFL rushing offense (135.8 yards per game) on the year, is expected to continue to split time this week.
The Bells will be attacking a San Francisco run defense that ranks a middle- of-the-pack 19th in NFL rushing defense (121.4 yards per game), and has given up a bloated 18 touchdowns on the ground this season. Just one week after shutting down the Seahawks' Shaun Alexander in a huge Week 15 win, the 49ers allowed Arizona's Edgerrin James to eclipse the 100-yard plateau last week. James' triple-digit day didn't come without a huge amount of resistance from defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga (18 tackles, 1.5 sacks), whose eight tackles in his first-ever start were a career-high. Fellow lineman Marques Douglas (57 tackles, 3 sacks) chipped in with six stops in the loss. Moore (82 tackles) maintained his team lead in tackles with an 11-stop day, and fellow LB Hannibal Navies (16 tackles) contributed six tackles to the proceedings.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The 49ers have posted some unexpected wins during a season that has seen the franchise make marked improvement, but the Broncos are not a team against which San Francisco matches up particularly well. Smith and Gore are going to have trouble making consistent headway against a Denver defense that has playmakers in the secondary and can stop the run, and a less-than-threatening Niners front seven is going to struggle with Denver's zone-rushing scheme. And that's before you get into the elements, which in no way favor the mild- climate 49ers. Look for the Broncos to jump on the Niners early, and to keep them at arm's length thereafter.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Broncos 28, 49ers 10
<< Notre Dame crushes Rider
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rob Kurz recorded a game-high 23 points to
go with eight rebounds, as 19th-ranked Notre Dame crushed Rider, 101-51 at
Joyce Center.
Kyle McAlarney added 21, including 7-of-9 from beyond the arc for the
<< Parker, Spurs stomp Jazz
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Parker scored 22 points, as the San
Antonio Spurs pounded Utah, 106-83, for their 15th straight win over the Jazz
at the AT&T Center.
Tim Duncan posted 20 points and nine rebounds for the Spurs,
<< Ninth-ranked Jayhawks leave Titans feeling queasy
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mario Chalmers scored 22 points on 7-of-12
shooting, as the ninth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks bested the Detroit Titans,
63-43, at Allen Fieldhouse.
Brandon Rush added nine points and five rebounds while
<< Cleary's hat trick paces Red Wings past Blue Jackets
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Daniel Cleary had a hat trick, tallying the
game-winning goal with 5:19 remaining in regulation as the Detroit Red Wings
needed a late rally to defeat the Columbus Blue Jackets, 7-4, in a Central
Divisio
Bengals Need Victory Over Steelers, Help >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals will take one last shot at making
the playoffs this Sunday, when they welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul
Brown Stadium.
After last week's heartbreaking 24-23 loss in snowy Denver, the Bengals no
Jets Try Not to Overlook Raiders >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a tough week for New York Jets fans.
Serving as a silent counterweight to the prospect of their team giddily
reaching the playoffs against an inferior foe in its home stadium on the
afternoon of New Year's Eve, is the
Giants Loss in D.C. Would Raise Contenders' Hopes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Much of the NFL-viewing public will temporarily become
Washington Redskins fans on Saturday night, when the New York Giants visit
FedEx Field in a game replete with postseason implications.
Should the 5-10 Redskins upset t
Streaking Titans Vying to Keep Hope Alive Vs. Pats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It required a major effort for the Tennessee Titans to
salvage their season from the scrap heap of an 0-5 start, and the hard work
will continue for Vince Young and his band of AFC Wild Card hopefuls on
Sunday.
The 11-4 P
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
To visit this online sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
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