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11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The richest weekend in racing comes our way at Churchill Downs this weekend as the BC Classic highlights 15 total Breeders' Cup races The $5 million Classic pits the filly Havre de Grace against last year's two-year-old champion Uncle Mo and 10 possible upsetters.
Havre de Grace has lost just once this year - by a nose to Blind Luck in the 1 1/4-mile Delaware Handicap. Her only real threat comes in the form of So You Think, who will be performing in his fourth race in just over two months. The son of High Chaparral has won nine of his 13 starts over the last two years, including victories this season in the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes, as well as a fourth-place finish in the Arc de Triomphe.
Uncle Mo has looked fabulous since returning to the races but he is a question mark at 10-furlongs.
Look for either Havre de Grace or So You Think to win the Classic with To Honor and Serve holding on for third.
Six of the 15 races will be on Friday, Nov. 4 beginning with the fifth race on the card - the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint.
Secret Circle was installed as the 6-5 favorite after two straight wins by a combined 12 1/2-lengths. The Bob Baffert-trained two-year-old showed he can rate when he sat off the two speeds in his last start and should dominate this weak field.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf event is highly contentious that is sure to produce a longshot winner. The two expected favorites - Elusive Kate and Somali Lemonade - have lost just one race between them. However, the former will be making her first start in North America while the latter starts from post 14.
The choice here is Dayatthespa - runner-up in the Natalma Stakes on the weeds at Woodbine in her last appearance.
The Filly and Mare Sprint is next with Turbulent Descent set as the morning- line favorite. The three-year-old hasn't raced since early August, which might be cause for concern since she has never started off a layoff this long.
I lean to a pair of four-year-olds. One is the possible second choice while the other is one of five 20-1 shots on the morning line.
Since finishing second in this race last year, Switch has yet to finish out of the money despite only two victories. Her recent third-place effort in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes should propel her in the right direction come Friday.
Tanda has also finished in the money in her last four starts with only one winner's circle appearance. Trainer Mike Mitchell prepped her for this on the grass so expect a solid performance.
The Juvenile Fillies is another wide-open affair but the favorites should have the edge. Weemissfrankie is on the list of three undefeated potential winners that also includes Grace Hall and the probable favorite - My Miss Aurelia.
Look for a couple of fillies to run with My Miss Aurelia early on, which will soften her up for the late coming charge of Weemissfrankie.
The Filly and Mare Turf features a pair of foreign fillies - the undefeated Nahrain and Announce. However, Stacelita will more than likely be favored after back-to-back victories in the Flower Bowl and Beverly D.
The choice here is Dubawi Heights. She has lost only once this year, a second- place finish to Stacelita on a yielding turf course at Arlington Park. There's not much speed in the race so look for her to control the pace and hang on for the gate-to-wire victory.
The final Friday event is the $2 million Ladies' Classic. With Havre de Grace running in the Classic, there really isn't a single standout in the field. The top pick is Ultra Blend, who will be making her first start at nine-furlongs. She is ultra-consistent with six straight first or second-place finishes.
A pair of pre-Breeders' Cup selections for Friday are Katz My Song in race two and the John Sadler-trained Gladding in race three.
BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY
The Marathon opens up Saturday's Breeders' Cup card and the choice here is Giant Oak.
The Juvenile Turf follows with State of Play taking on the role as morning- line favorite. However, the two-year-old, trained by Graham Motion, was saddled with the 14 post. In what should be a wide open race, take a shot with Fantastic Song, who ran third in the Pilgrim Stakes over a very soft turf course at Belmont Park six weeks after breaking his maiden at Saratoga.
Big Drama looks to make it two straight Sprint wins but this time he comes in with only one prep since mid-January. Nevertheless, he is the class of a race that is lacking in quality horses. Amazombie will be his main competition.
Chamberlain Bridge tries for a repeat in the Turf Sprint but the seven-year- old gelding drew the far outside post position in a field of 14. As is the case in the Juvenile Turf, don't be shocked if a longshot prevails as the morning-line favorite, Regally Ready, has won just one of his last three races.
The choice here is Great Attack for trainer Wesley Ward. The four-year-old colt drew a solid post position (five) and should sit right behind Rapport early on. If that filly doesn't handle the turf, look for Great Attack to inherit the lead and surprise the field at huge odds.
The Dirt Mile is a fantastic race but imagine how much better the Sprint would have been if this race was never created. Who wouldn't have loved to see Big Drama go up against The Factor and Trappe Shot.
The Factor should have the early lead but don't be surprised if Tapizar runs him down into the stretch. From there, look for Trappe Shot, Wilburn, and Caleb's Posse to make it a four-horse photo at the wire with Trappe Shot defeating the three-year-olds.
The Turf will showcase the European contingent of Await the Dawn, Midday, St Nicholas Abbey, Sarafina, and Sea Moon. The pick is Await the Dawn.
The Juvenile could be the best race of the day with undefeated Union Rags taking on Mine That Bird's brother Dullahan; the possible freak Hansen, who has won his two starts at Turfway Park by a combined 25 1/2-lengths; the Florida Stallion Series champion Fort Loudon (four-for-four with lasix); Royal Lodge Stakes winner Daddy Long Legs; and the two California standouts, Creative Cause and Drill.
The longshot choice is Alpha. The son of Bernardini won at first asking by six lengths going seven-furlongs at Saratoga and followed that up with a well- beaten, second-place finish behind Union Rags in the Champagne. It might be difficult to improve over five-lengths on Saturday but the well-bred two-year- old picks up Garrett Gomez, and with a better break from the gate, could turn the tables on the expected favorite.
As previously mentioned, there are a couple of horses searching for back-to- back Breeders' Cup victories but nothing compares to what Goldikova could accomplish in the Mile. She'll be looking for her fourth consecutive win in this event. Surprisingly, American-based horses have finished second in her previous three wins and two of them (Gio Ponti and Courageous Cat) are back at it here.
The play is another foreign-based horse - Byword.
A half-brother to multiple Grade I winner Proviso, Byword comes into the Mile off two straight wins, and even though Goldikova has beaten him twice, both of those races were run at nine-furlongs - one-furlong more than this race.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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